MARKET RULES
Two-way vs three-way moneyline: what happens to a draw?
A three-way moneyline lists a draw as a separate selection. A two-way market lists only the two competitors, but its rules still determine whether a tie is refunded or play continues for settlement. Check both the possible outcomes and the time period.
A team's name and price do not fully identify a market. “Team A to win in regulation” and “Team A to win including overtime” ask different questions. Comparing those prices as if they described the same event can make a prediction look stronger than it is.
Start with the draw rule
DraftKings' moneyline explanation distinguishes a two-way market, where a settled tie returns the stake, from a three-way market with a separately priced draw. In that three-way market, a draw does not refund a losing team selection. This describes that operator's explanation; always check the rules attached to the actual market.
The time period is a separate question
For soccer, DraftKings' settlement guide says its usual three-way market uses regulation plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties unless stated otherwise. Its “To Advance / To Qualify” markets include the later stages needed to decide advancement. “Draw No Bet” instead refunds a draw under the applicable match-period rules.
For hockey, DraftKings describes its 60-minute line as three choices based on the score after three periods: either team or the tie. An eventual overtime winner therefore does not retroactively become the regulation-time winner.
One hypothetical game, different outcomes
Suppose a game is tied when regulation ends, and Team A subsequently wins in overtime. The table assumes the markets have exactly the rules shown; it is an illustration, not a real result or a universal settlement policy.
| Selection and stated rule | Illustrative result | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Team A, winner including overtime | Win | A wins within the included period. |
| Team A, three-way regulation only | Loss | Regulation ended tied. |
| Draw, three-way regulation only | Win | The selected period ended tied. |
| Team A, regulation draw-no-bet | Push | The stated draw rule returns the stake. |
Why you must include all three prices
Consider hypothetical three-way odds of +100 for Team A, +250 for Team B and +250 for the draw. Using the American-odds probability formula, their raw implied probabilities are 50%, 28.57% and 28.57%. The total is about 107.14%.
Proportional normalization divides each unrounded probability by the sum of all three. The resulting estimates are about 46.67% for A, 26.67% for B and 26.67% for the draw. Rounding makes the displayed total 100.01%. These are price-derived estimates, not known true chances.
If you omit the draw and divide A only by the two team probabilities, you get about 63.64%. That answers a conditional comparison between the two team outcomes after excluding the draw. It is not A's estimated chance of winning the regulation-time three-way market. The difference comes from changing the denominator, not from discovering an advantage.
A quick market-matching checklist
- Record the full market name, not just the team and moneyline.
- Identify whether draw, push and cancellation are distinct possible settlement outcomes.
- Read the included time period: regulation, overtime, shootout or advancement.
- Use every priced outcome from the same market and collection time.
- Compare a prediction only with odds for the event it actually predicts.
Our current daily-five calculation uses pairs of moneylines, as described in the methodology; it is not a three-way prediction model. Do not transfer a displayed winner estimate to a different market without checking that the definitions match. And even a correctly matched estimate does not establish profitable betting value.
Sources checked September 18, 2026. Operator references explain the named market conventions and are not endorsements. The outcome scenario and probability calculations are original hypothetical illustrations. Rules can differ by competition, market and jurisdiction.